Personally I tend to ignore analysts though Goldman Sachs’s Simona Jankowski today gave her estimates for BlackBerry setting it to beat the street. We all know that analysts are mostly playing pin the tail on the donkey in the dark… while hopping on one foot… singing Yankee doodle with their estimates. What I did find interesting was a chart she created (see above) showing the launch date and price before and after tax for the BlackBerry Z10 in 20 markets. 11 of those markets launched the Z10 in February so their numbers will be included in BlackBerrys YEQ4 results coming later this month. My guess is BlackBerry will also talk about the March sales since more markets were opened up then.
She also gave some interesting data about her channel checks on the BlackBerry Z10:
We conducted retail checks at nearly 40 stores in the UK, Canada, UAE, and India, to gauge the Z10 launch sales and subsequent demand. Specifically, we asked questions around popularity, sales trajectory, consumer feedback, inventory, and return rate. Based on these, we believe that most stores had a successful launch week, followed by steady demand for the device […] Z10’s pricing around the world implies an ASP of over $500, well above the November quarter’s smartphone ASP of $227 (Exhibit 1). As a result, we expect the Z10 ramp to drive a significant increase to BlackBerry’s ASPs and margins, implying upside to consensus estimates in FY4Q and to a greater extent in the May and August quarters, which include 3 months of shipments globally as opposed to 1 month of shipments in limited regions in FY4Q (Feb).
Let us know if you find any other interesting analyst estimates!
Via Barrons blog