Home › Forums › General BlackBerry Discussion › Interesting thoughts on the effect BB10 will have on RIM
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Marc Paradise 5 months ago.
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December 20, 2012 at 10:55 AM #178528
http://www.appstechnews.com/blog-hub/2012/dec/17/rim-will-get-a-boost-but-not-salvation-from-bb10/
Quote:The points of differentiation RIM has focused on in teasers for the new platform confirm this – better multitasking, productivity, email, contacts and calendar applications and so on, rather than a better gaming, content consumption or social networking experience.I think they got that slightly wrong. Gaming will be one of the platform's strong suit. I agree with the rest though.
But the most interesting point of the article is their conclusion. It's exactly what worries me about RIM's strategy for 2013, because while BB10 looks nice. It needs to be better than the competition in order to win market shares.
Quote:Longer term, RIM will return to its recent patterns of declineDespite the brief bump RIM will see from the launch of BB10, we expect its decline to continue longer term.
At its peak, RIM shipped between 12 and 15 million devices per quarter, but there is no way it can hit this number on a sustainable basis once the BB10 launch filters through. Though the new platform should have significant appeal to existing users, we don’t expect it to win significant numbers of converts from other platforms.
There is little in the new platform that suggests it will have the compelling apps, content stores, or the broader ecosystem that consumers have come to expect in a competitive smartphone platform.
There are bright spots in emerging markets, where BlackBerry devices have become a middle-class status symbol as they once were in mature markets. But these devices are low-priced and based on BB10’s predecessor BB7, which is destined for the scrap heap in the medium term.
As developers shift their focus to BB10, it will be harder and harder for RIM to maintain the appeal of the older platform in these markets, especially since it is unlikely to release new hardware running BB7. BB10, meanwhile, requires high-end specs that will be impossible to deliver at such price points in the near future.
Therefore, the current popularity of BlackBerry in emerging markets is likely to be short-lived, especially as Android based alternatives begin to flood the market at even lower prices.
In all, RIM continues to face the twin demons of consumer-driven buying power and a chronic inability to appeal to mature market consumers. There is nothing in what we’ve seen so far of BB10 that suggests it will conquer the second of these demons, and the first is utterly out of RIM’s control.
We don’t expect a speedy exit from the market; with no debt, 80 million subscribers and profitability in the black in at least some recent quarters, the company can continue in this vein for years. But its glory days are past, and it is only a matter of time before it reaches a natural end.
December 21, 2012 at 5:46 PM #197521Define "better"
some would say WP8 is "better" but its not doing anything
sure, being "better" will help, but, its far more complex than just being "better"
"better" is subjective
December 21, 2012 at 6:08 PM #197522Hmm… I think it may be right if the reader/viewer was just looking at RIM in a vacumm but nothing lives in a vacumm.
In the bigger picture the writer has forgotten to look at the bigger picture and really the direction of mobile computing in its many different iterations, from the explosive growth of tablets to laptops that act as tablets and cars infotainment systems (which is mainly powered by QNX).
There is currently nothing compelling out there either. The iPad Mini and even the iPhone 5 hasn't really overwhelmed anybody. Reviewers are even telling people not to bother upgrading to iPhone 5 if they already have iPhone 4S. The iPad Mini got panned by critics with the general consensus of it being an overpriced "me too" iPad and not worth the money.
Phone manufacturers put out some beautiful hardware Android phones but the system is flawed as each manufacturer do not necessarily upgrade their OS when a newer version of OS comes out so it forces people to buy more phones to get the newest version of OS… fragmentation in that part is huge.
WP8 has been literally beatened to death about how great it is or will be and it's been mediocre at best in terms of the North American reception. Very little money or focus have been placed on that phone with the majority of advertising efforts spent on their new tablet. This makes me question how great their phone really is if they just launched it and they spend even less money on it than RIM did with their Playbook or last OS7 phones.
December 21, 2012 at 6:16 PM #197523WP8 is still incomplete and that means that there is an opportunity for RIM to sway users towards its platform instead, but WP8 is starting to pick up steam, so it will be an interesting fight to follow.
Yes, better is subjective, but some of the limitations of other platforms are well known, so if you can improve the experience and deliver more features, then you're doing better.
People won't switch just to get the same experience, they need an incentive to switch: a better experience.
We'll quickly see if RIM has enough muscle to compete anyway. Without the big apps, BBW's app catalogue will be as bad as the one on the PlayBook and most people will take a wait and see approach.
December 21, 2012 at 11:38 PM #197524WP8 is staring to pick up steam?
December 21, 2012 at 11:48 PM #197525Yeah, WP8 has Whatsapp
December 22, 2012 at 12:58 AM #197526The bigger story is the massive flop the iPhone 5 is in China.
Don't forget most of the analysts you hear from are in the US which is a smartphone market that is declining in importance. To see just how trivial the market is note that the iPhone has 48% market share in the US and 14% world wide.
I expect RIM to struggle.In the US but beat expectations quarter after quarter. If RIM ever catches on in China the US can get stuffed.
December 22, 2012 at 8:29 AM #197527I love this Windows phone love without any real data to back it up. Tech bloggers and analysts are quick to point to Windows and proclaim it the 3rd mobile platform but offer only the following arguing points; its got Microsoft's money reserve and positive sentiments. So, therefore its going to be more successful than RIM. To me people who think Windows will be successful are basing their rosy view based on the Microsoft brand and not looking at how the company has performed in the mobile market. Here's a recap; they were struggling and still struggling. Both RIM and Windows are in a fight of their life and BB10 is the last piece before these two battle it out. My guess is Microsoft would much rather have RIM's customer base and be introducing a new platform. I wrote about why RIM was in a better position previously…..it has customers it can make the case to. That doesn't mean it will be successful but certainly I would much rather make a case to an audience than to no audience at all. And don't even get me started on the stock because this is the most ridiculous thing. Why was RIM up to begin with? What exactly changed in their financial situation to drive the stock close to $14? Nothing! Aside from a couple of positive media news that stopped reading "RIM RIP." Investors now a days are like the vast majority of tech blogs. They jump on the general trends and offer little to no real substance. People start saying RIM is dead and every one jumps on board. Apple stock is down more than 20% and why? Cause investors think it might be on the decline? Exactly where is the decline coming from? Less Iphone being shipped? Less ipads being shipped? Someone please offer me some insight. Investing based on emotions or public opinion is perhaps the dumbest thing to do. If that's how you invest you might as well take your money and open up a saving account. If you plan on investing in RIM its a complete risks in terms of financial investment. But isn't that why we invest? To see opportunities when other see risks. So let's not start the "OMG RIM stands no chance" BS again because these are the same talking points I have been hearing for the last year and a half and wait the company is still here. Let the company release BB10 and give it 2 quarter to see how consumers react to it. Stop trying to play god because no one can see into the future. What goes up must come down and what goes down must come up…..the only real question is how low and how high. BB10 will change every thing for RIM because I truly believe they are offering something different in terms of experience. RANT DONE!
December 22, 2012 at 2:50 PM #197528Regarding WP8, check the latest market share figures. RIM sank pretty much everywhere in Europe and in the US, while WP8 rose a little to reach the level of RIM. Per example the UK used to be a strong market for RIM, but they're now irrelevant.
December 22, 2012 at 7:20 PM #197529I agree with Brighton. However Ofutur one has to consider that WP8 has been out in Europe for a year or possibly year and a half and they're finally reaching Rim's marketshare? Considering that Rim hadn't had a "new" phone out in a year that's pretty slow growth… marketshare creates a snapshot of that single moment not a forecast on what will happen in the future. That can be said for all smartphones. BB10 will come out in the beginning of January and those numbers will change once again.
Microsoft is expending money and energy on their newest tablet, here in North America, not on their phones over this holiday season. That's pretty indicative on where they think they'll get bigger returns… not from their phones which have had no ads for months and months (probably as long as RIM haven't had a phone ad).
December 22, 2012 at 10:22 PM #197530I was looking at changes over the course of a year, but it would be more interesting to see the numbers for Q4, just to see if WP8 is really gaining traction.
All I'm saying is that some people like WP8 and it has a head start. Now if Microsoft has decided not to market it right in the US, it may be because they've decided to focus on other markets, like RIM has for 2011-12.
I still think it will be an interesting fight to watch and hopefully RIM can deliver what most consumers want with the help of big software development houses. It took them a long time to jump on the Android bandwagon.
December 23, 2012 at 8:50 PM #197531Surprisingly I have started to see started to see more mainstream coverage (I would be impressed with even acknowledgement)of RIM and the upcoming release of BB10, some articles not all bad or cynical, not necessarily positive but not negative either, more just a presenting of the news, which is what I expect.
December 24, 2012 at 3:44 AM #197532As far as the big name apps on BB10 are concerned, I have heard rumblings about some very significant ones being tested behind closed doors at RIM HQ. I think Thor has some massive announcements on Jan 30th.
December 25, 2012 at 12:58 AM #197533Hope so I think the only news on Jan 30th will be apps. Most other things have been leaked.
I don't think it is fair to compare win8 with BB since RIM has no new product while win 8 does.
December 25, 2012 at 3:38 AM #197534Quote:They jump on the general trends and offer little to no real substance. People start saying RIM is dead and every one jumps on board. Apple stock is down more than 20% and why? Cause investors think it might be on the decline? Exactly where is the decline coming from? Less Iphone being shipped? Less ipads being shipped?Something I've realized as I've gotten more into following the markets: it has little to do with actual expectations, and more to do with what market gamers think the expectations and reactions will be.
Long term investors will seldom dump stock on short notice – it's all about the short term folks trying to outguess the market, and in the process *making* the market.
That's why you see unreasonable things happening very quickly, like Apple's recent stock price or RIM's drop, rise, and drop.
The most interesting thing is that it's completely impersonal: the people could care less if RIM succeeds or fails — only that they guess right and ride the wave for the short term.
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