This wouldn’t be such bad news if BlackBerry was simply honest. A few analysts have been digging through the latest BlackBerry SEC filing and the results confirm some of their fears. Michael Blair over at SeekingAlpha has the best analysis in crunching the numbers but I will do my best to summarize them below. Either way it shows the BlackBerry has millions of unsold BlackBerry 10 devices on their shelves. The numbers break down to BlackBerry selling the following number of BlackBerry 10 devices:
- Q1: 600,000 BlackBerry 10 devices
- Q2: 1.7 million BlackBerry 10 devices
- Q3: 1 million BlackBerry 10 devices
That is a total of 3.3 million devices which is not terrible but it seems like BlackBerry has been building 1.5 to 2 million devices a month since February resulting in 10.5 to 14 million devices produced. If they sold 3.3 and have another 0.5 million in channel then that leaves 6.7-10.3 million BlackBerry 10 devices in inventory that BlackBerry is writing down. The disclosure of $3.1 billion in purchase commitments with $1.5 of that to contract manufacturers means BlackBerry could have another 7.5 million devices on top of the 6.7-10.3 million if they do not find a way to negotiate them down.
This makes me wonder if BlackBerry just needs to discount these phones like crazy and get them into users hands. Better yet would be dropping off thousands of them at large fortune 500 enterprises to get them using BES 10. That might have a chance of putting this chicken before the egg.
What do you think BlackBerry should do with the excess inventory? Its also nice to learn about how many BlackBerry 10 users there are in the wild.