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Analysts Agree BlackBerry Q10 Selling Well in Canada – Flawed Methods in UK


Last week I was chuckling when I read the latest analyst report from Deutsche Bank’s Brian Modoff about how BlackBerry sales in Canada were “positive” while running into a “tepid reception” in the UK. Personally I don’t give analysts reports much weight but at least they are mostly agreeing on Canada. What I truly found funny was when I read the analysis of Deutsche Bank’s flawed UK analysis by Michael Collins on Seeking Alpha. It turns out that Deutsche Bank performed some pretty asinine analyst mistakes in their “research.”

First of all instead of calling Vodafone which has had the Q10 the longest they decided to call EE and O2. Of those EE did not even have the BlackBerry Q10 for sale and were only taking preorders. In other words of the two operators they checked one of them was not even selling the device. They also totally missed the point by not calling The Carphone Warehouse or Phones4U and focusing on only those carriers. Last but not least they seem to have missed the boat on BlackBerry Q10 business sales that skip retail stores.

Either way Collins does a great job of explaining why you must be “careful about analyst research notes that have a clear agenda regarding BlackBerry.” I personally just think it reaffirms my belief in Sturgeons Law.

82 total comments on this postSubmit your comment!
  1. Good job, BerryReview Team! Let them have it.

    I cannot believe folks at a well known bank are paying for such rubbish surveys. I think even high school students could do a better job at it. They may not have known about the direct business channels, but they would have checked with other providers who sold the darn products!

    Anyone still have money in Deutsche Bank?

  2. “Analysts Agree BlackBerry Q10 Selling Well in Canada – Flawed Methods in Canada”

    Flawed title? 😉

  3. Conversely if you got to work this hard to find evidence of strong sales can’t be a good sign. No one makes mistakes about big sellers like iPhone or Galaxy

    • It’s not a matter of working hard but more that they asked carriers who did not even launch the device when they clearly could have asked the biggest UK carrier.

      • I think you missed the point, if they had called as they claim to have, they would’ve been properly informed of that fact that the Q10 isn’t even selling at EE (as you say) but; they didn’t even bother to call.

        • Didn’t miss the point at all. If something is selling extremely well you don’t have to search for it.

          • So you are telling me that if you ask a carrier who is not selling a product yet if it is selling well then you will get solid sales information in response? I think not…

            • I think you might be missing the point. If its selling well you don’t even need to ask. Doesn’t matter anyway regarding the q10. BB only future is in the Z10, if any. Sure the Q10 may bring some needed cash to survive just like Kodak’s hold to Film cameras. It’s technology of the past only appeals to a small group of leftover enthusiast who have a nostalgia for a time past. Younger generation has no desire for physical keyboard and all evidence on typing test suggest it’s an illusion that in fact you type faster on a touchpad z10 with it’s keyboard technology than a physical one. Q10 is a relic and thus why BB launched second.

              • I believe your analysis of things is extremely flawed regarding a device that sales or not. You are only looking for general adoption without knowing true numbers and true facts.
                So what you are telling me is that if you are in your home town and you see everybody buying the same device, to you it means it sells extremely well everywhere in the world! Well unfortunately it might mean it sells well only in your town cause its not out in the rest of the world yet. Which does not mean that its not selling well else where cause its not available yet.
                You absolutely need to do channel check ups to know true numbers and adoption cause just looking outside the window to determine that, doesn’t mean Jack sh*t in the business world.
                Telling your hole familly and friends adopted something doesn’t mean its really adopted by all. True facts and verification is always more solid than just having an impression.
                And regarding that ANALyst, he didnt do his job right and didn’t take the time to verify his sources. Therefore it is a flawed study coming from a flawed ANALyst! Period.

  4. I just subscribed to Seeking Alpha. I used to despise the negativity but they seemed to have come around in recent weeks. BB10 must be making a good impression on them 🙂

    • It’s all business amigo…more hits, more money…

      • yeah but the actual analysts are manipulating the market

        • Maybe true but in the end if it’s selling then you’d know it with or without the analyst. Getting excited about the Q10 to save BB is like Kodak getting excited about a digital camera a few years back it may sell a few units and keep it afloat but in the end the physical keyboard is a dying product.

          • Stop believing in the Apple mentra where if you don’t sell hundreds of million of phones you are not successful. There is still a market for physical keyboards. You are right at the fact that this market is diminishing with time but the numbers are still big enough to get a VERY significant amount of sales from this market. Therefore Blackberry is squeezing the juice out of this lemon until there is truly no juice. And when you’re practically alone squeezing the lemons left, well thats almost close to 100% of all that juice just for you. And again, there is still a hole lot of lemons left in that field cause there are higly populated countries that are still embracing the keyboard.

        • Are these analyst also manipulating the numbers. Is the entire world on a conspiracy

      • The ship is going down. See today’s earnings and as I mentioned a month ago ask any store rep they are not selling.

  5. Yeah you can buy camera’s that use film as well.

  6. Where everyone seems to be missing the boat with regards to BBRY is that they have become a nitch player rather than a mass market player.

    Yes ‘Keyboard Devices’ have for the most part passed in to history – but their is a certain segment where keyboard technology is still a better solution. I know people who text while riding horses, while jogging, and while driving (not that they should do so) and for these the touch feedback of a real keyboard is essential to being able to avoid having to look at the screen while typing.

    Providing a dedicated ‘business focused’ solution is the other nitch that BBRY plays in quite well… these are the folks who don’t care about the number of apps in the app store but only does it provide the ability to communicate in real time with other professionals.

    Yes these may only represent 5% or so of the market, but when we are talking about a market sector with 2 billion units that still works out to 100 million devices per year.

    Simply arguing that BBRY is doomed by the fact that they are in 3rd place is not that much different than arguing that Honda is a dead company and should stop making automobiles since they have less than a 5% world market share and are ranked 8th in the world.

  7. 5% huh? Pulling numbers from the sky now. 5% is barely the entire blackberry market share combined all devices and maybe less this month (slips monthly). But yes like camera’s with film (my mother in law uses one cause she likes the process of getting the developed etc) they’ll always be a market for anything.

  8. I was not saying BBRY has 5% of the market (I think the latest numbers I have seen place them around 2%). I was just saying that ‘if’ these segments only representing 5% of the total market is still a huge market to be playing in when the total market is 2 billion.

    The only ‘hard numbers’ which I could find for Qwerty Keypad versus Touchscreen were published in late 2012 at Nokia’s official ‘Conversations Nokia’ site and state that based on their research the input preferences for cell phone users are:

    48.6% prefer QWERTY
    34.7% prefer Touch Screens
    8.9% prefer Numeric only Keypads
    7.8% prefer Voice Input

    However, the point I was trying to make was that based on the last set of financials BBRY only needs to capture a small portion to be profitable – they don’t need to beat Apple or Google. In fact the one criticism I have of BBRY right now is they keep pushing that they are gunning for Android/iOS rather than emphasizing they offer a ‘unique’ solution targeted at a specific sub market and intend to dominate that smaller segment.

    With regards to slipping monthly – if you look at data such as browser traffic statistics for cell phones by brand you will see that the slide stopped around March with the introduction of the Z10 and has been climbing ever since. Also, sales numbers for Canada and UK suggest that since the introduction of BB10 devices market share in those markets have doubled.

  9. Qwerty is higher now because you are including legacy phones already bought for the past decade. Also your assertion BBRY is number 3 is incorrect. Windows Phone has just recently surpassed BBRY.


    • Again based on some ANALysts remarks. But when looking at growth, it is clear that BB10 is 3rd. WP had more than 6 months to build their eco system for WP 8 and BBRY has only been out for 4 months not even globally yet and they are barely 15K to 25K short of what WP 8 has acquired in almost a year. In terms of sale, well it seems both parties do not give sell through numbers and therefore we can not be sure of what those ANALysts are actually giving you for numbers.
      There is many study out there that says WP 8 surpassed BBRY and others that don’t.
      So take the one that fits your argument… But does that mean you are right? I highly doubt so

  10. Is this my grandma looking for her 8 track tape

  11. I think Brian Madoff of Deutsche Bank is pretending to be Pinellasdoug.
    **why should I do research when I know the Blackberry 10 phones are not selling well** Great research calling places that are not selling phones and then saying that research is not even needed to show sales, we should telephathically know sales in the United Kingdom.

    Comparing the BB10 phones to film cameras is a poor comparison. A QWERTY phone trounches a virtual keyboard phone in typing accuracy. I have a co-worker who constantly types under the table without looking on her BB. Try that on a virtual keyobard. Add in the security of a BB, there is a strong market for BB phones.

  12. BB10 phones are top of the line. The Z10 phone is faster than an iPhone and very very slick. It is easy to use and has an operating system designed in the past few years unlike iOS and Android which are OLD, like a Grandmammy.

  13. Security huh? Seems like the Pentagon thinks Iphone is plenty secure. Just like the keyboard argument it’s a point that really doesn’t carry much weight anymore as the others have caught up significantly for 99.9999999999% of the business and consumer population but maybe you are talking to aliens so you fit that .0000000000001%

    Numbers really . Windows 7 has overtaken BBRY you can say all you want about pipeline etc but most companies and sales live in the present. If you want to reply in a quarter and show me blackberry is number 3 again then do so but until then Microsoft is #3 seller in the mobile space.

  14. Read my post from the start.. I indicate the Z10 is the only viable option for blackberry. I agree with you it’s a slick phone not sure its better but certainly not worse than iphone or android just a preference.

  15. If you read the link you provided regarding Windows taking 3rd lace the date was for the 1st quarter ending in March. Just because the data was just released does not mean that it is current data.

    That was before Z10 was launched in all markets and Q10 was launched in any market.

    Any ‘diehard’ BBRY fans would most likely have staved off buying a new phone until the Z10/Q10 launched knowing that they were only weeks away.

    To me what is surprising is that the reported sales market share weren’t significantly worse than reported for the 1st quarter… only time will tell but I would predict that we will see very different numbers for 3rd quarter sales released in November since that will be the first where BBRY has a complete line of phones on the market (even 2nd quarter numbers will be skewed because of the Q10).

    If you look at more recent data like reported on in this article – subsequent to release of BB10 significant growth has been seen in Market Share at least in the UK/SA/CA markets. Early indicators are that the Canadian Market Share has at least doubled since the introduction.

  16. Hey in sales most companies live with the latest data. Perhaps BBRY makes a comeback than at that time you can rub the data all over my email. In the meantime Windows has launched a pretty good new phone as well “Lumia 928”. Good chance the Lumia will outsell all BBRY devices combined.

  17. IPhone for the Pentagon:
    1. No iTunes;
    2. No Safari browser (needs 3rd party web browser);
    3. No App Store;
    4. No iMessage

    All because they are security risks. Overall, the iPhone is a big security risk to users and is not secure as sold.

    The only phone that is secure as sold is Blackberry. Samsung is having to heavily revise its ‘Knox’ software to meet a lower security level standard. Even then, it won’t be ready for months.

    Security = Blackberry

  18. Really? So if I work for the Pentagon I can use Slacker APP or Spotify (Whoops BBRY doesn’t have a Spotify for BB1). Kind of silly.

    Again Iphone / Android is secure enough for 99.9999999999%

    Please… So I’m guessing you are at least 40 years old right?

  19. Why don’t we just use 1998 data to prove our points as well? We all know that BB10 was released after the beginning of the year and that Blackberry’s marketshare improved afterwards.

    To say that BB10 is not selling well based on data before the BB10 release is incorrect in the least.

  20. 32 years old. Wrong again.

    Plus I own a Z10 phone and a Samsung Note 2 and have owned a iPhone 4S in the past.

  21. It’s not selling well. Period. Do yourself a favor if you are in the USA walk into ANY

    Best Buy Mobile

    Ask are the Z10’s selling . They all give you that shit grin with the answer “not really”. What’s your top sellers Iphone, Galaxy, Lumia . Not to mention the phones are still in the back and no one around them. That is reality.

  22. Take away the browser, the messaging system, iTunes and the AppStore and the iPhone is…………..not a smartphone.

    So as it stands, the iPhone is not a secure smartphone. Obviously, you cannot stop bashing Blackberry and acknowledge some of its benefits over the competition.

  23. What does that have to do with sales of the Q10 in the United Kingdom????

  24. Wrong first time .. not again. But interesting you are way miniority.

  25. UK nothing. Just a first hand observation in our market. The reps at retail in the US (where I am at) actually complain they see no reps from BBRY, that BBRY buys no promotion space and so the product gets moved to the back.

  26. More secure in the big technical picture yes but does that difference mean squat to 99.9999 of the purchasers .. No. It’s a non selling feature.

    So my buddy has a Z10 he shows me he could not even cut and paste a number into the dialer which he had to do because the website wouldn’t make numbers clickable which did on my 4s. I’ll take this functionality over some incremental security.

    Also I lived on BBRY from 2001 to 2011. I couldn’t stand touchpad until finally had to upgrade from a Bold went to Iphone and now can type faster on it that a Bold. I don’t care if i can’t type under a desk without looking because I’d never be so rude as to do that.

    • I agree that most consumers don’t care about security. The proof is in the number of iPhones and Android phone selling, despite all the flaws and security/privacy issues. Americans are the only one complaining when they can take companies to court in order to make a little bit of money.

      Now there are still people on this planet who take their responsibilities seriously when it comes to protecting their customer data or their own. For us, there is not much choice. Despite all their flaws, BlackBerrys remains the best devices.

      Your buddy can upgrade to the latest OS which fixes this particular problem and regarding the keyboard. The Z10 has the best virtual keyboard and that’s still too slow and cumbersome for some people, so the Q series will sell well enough to take BBRY past Windows Phone.

  27. Regarding DoD & Security

    Although not updated yet, the real proof will be in the application notes for Apple & Sumsung from DISA (i.e. the DoD) when posted. Right now if you go to the DISA site the current application note for Apple states:

    “iOS met the use case 1 requirements in the UCR,
    and is certified for joint use as an MMD (also CMD).

    This MMD is certified to process only non-sensitive, publically available DoD information and shall be limited in use to those DoD tasks authorized by the Chief Information Officers for Combatant Commands, Services, and

    No such restrictions apply to the use of Blackberry devices. While proceeding through the approval process the ‘only’ reason the approval was reported to have been delayed for Apple was that the DoD had entered in discussions regarding the ability to restrict certain functions and disable certain application components on Apples phones used by the DoD – some which were mentioned as being of concern were the AppStore, the default browser, the default mail app and instant messaging.

    Device Management

    The other hiccup right now is that although the DoD has approved Apple / Samsung devices, they have also stated that the devices must be used in conjunction with an approved enterprise device management solution.

    Problem is that currently the only approved device management solution is BEM10 and that has only been approved for use currently with Blackberry devices. Until they decide upon a management solution for the other platforms the fact the devices have been approved is a mute point. BEM10 is thought by many to be the front runner since with 10.1 it now supports Android & iOS but the platform chosen could just as easily be Citrix XenMobile or some other solution.

  28. I think Apple and Samsung already know the requirements and sell them phones that meet such requirements. I don’t think the general is going down to ATT store.

  29. yeah that’s a cool feature for companies I expect it won’t be the only one that can do this very long.

  30. I think they’ve got the money to keep at it until its right.

    • Ronen is right. Can’t build a skyscraper on a bad foundation, and once the building starts going up, it becomes impossible to fix or strengthen the foundation. Any changes to that foundation breaks all the apps built above. BlackBerry was in the fortunate situation to rebuild their new OS on a secure and proven foundation, QNX.

      • Come to think of it, BlackBerry had to start from the foundation up again, merging old and new, exceeding and then excel in what they did and still do best, security.
        That’s a lot, yeah a lot of people are pissed off at the things they are missing like auto shut down but it’s like making a completely new OS even if the PlayBook is part of the planning of BlackBerry 10.

        • I’d agree with that and on that thought playing with the z10 I found a lot of those efficiencies in the prior OS where now missing making the Z10 different but not much better in terms of efficiency… Maybe the hub but it has some quirks that result in way to many steps to get done what prior BB OS did better. BB10 is solid but different not necessarily better because of this.

          • Every new OS has it’s own challenges, everytime I get used to the OS…a new one comes out and I loose a few of my apps the ones I loved the most.
            My wife has the Z10 and she hated it for a few days but now…she loves it.
            Google maps 7.x works very well on it with Navigation but no sign in…
            But then again, who knows what google will axe next, they do more clean up than a waitress at a fast food restaurant.
            Keyboard on the Z10, good and very fast but not the most accurate.

  31. That is no question. It is just a fork of Android though so it will not be the Android any normal user will be used to. The problem is they are starting with a boat that is full of holes and trying to plug them all with patches. They had to create yet another fork of Android to make this all work which leads to an even more fragmented Android marketplace.

    • This blog went so sideways with the disagreements but, some solid information came out of it.
      Very nice NEXT article though.

    • they’ll build another skyscraper the difference is they won’t wait until everyone else builds a city around them like RIM did. RIM
      s biggest enemy is themselves. RIM believes and still thinks they are king of the hill. They play in the marketspace like they are in the lead with a prevent defense when they should be attacking with offense. BB10 is good its not any better or worse just different from what most people I’ve spoken with think. Its by no means earth shattering and great technologies die all the time from poor execution in the marketplace .. even the better ones .. unfortunately.

    • Google already is working on the new OS . I guarantee they take the CHROME OS ( now on Chromebook , Chromebox ) straight to the mobile phone. That linux platform will be flexible enough to do whatever they want and lean /mean.

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