You have to love how analysts are all over the map. The latest craziness came when Cleveland Research claimed yesterday that “early feedback on Q10 sales in Canada & the UK were below expectations” and that BlackBerry would be cutting back Z10 production to half. This seemed off for anyone who had heard BlackBerry’s CEO and other wireless CEO’s stating the opposite.
Now both Jefferies’ analyst, Peter Misek, and Bluefin have done their own much more thorough stock checks and they point to the exact opposite of what Cleveland Research claims. Here is what Misek had to say (via streetinsider)
"We spent yesterday afternoon contacting dozens of UK stores amongst the various Carphone Warehouse locations and carrier branded stores. Our analysis of over 50 stores indicates robust and broad demand with one exception. Orange stores, both the co-branded Carphone Warehouse locations and the Orange retail stores had inventory, where every other brand was either sold out or had limited stock."
"We also conducted store checks in Canada. Initially, only stores in the Greater Toronto Area received stock, but now the rollout has continued across the country. After randomly calling 10 stores of different brands, we stopped as the conclusion was clear: broad, strong, and better than expected demand."
"We additionally rechecked with our supply chain database (as a reminder we track over 400 suppliers globally), and we found no change to last week’s build plans," the analyst comments. "We have a difficult time calibrating how some market participants believe quarterly build plans were around 12M or 4M per month. We have always had 2M+ a month or 6M+ a quarter. Keeping in mind that our sell-in estimates of 4M units shipped are already significantly above market expectations of 3M units shipped this quarter. The builds of certain market participants are 4x market expectations, which to us makes little sense."
He also stated that BlackBerry R10 production will go to mass production this summer for a launch in August. My buddy Chris over @CrackBerry also had a great analysis of Bluefin’s research report that came out this week. Here is a quick bulleted list:
- BlackBerry is set to deliver more than 20 million BlackBerry 10 devices this fiscal year, and that would be significantly higher than most analyst estimates.
- …that Q10 production has now shifted to a 3:1 ratio of Z10 production levels, which they say is up from a prior production ratio of 1.5:1
- BlackBerry underestimated demand for the Q10, and now makes three times as many Q10 devices as Z10.
In other words the people in the know seem to think that BlackBerry 10 sales are doing better than expected and are in no way contracting. Hell anyone could tell you that with the build up to the Q10 launch in the US.