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Analyst Says RIM Will Sell 450,000 PlayBooks by End of this Month

pull bunny out of hat

I always get a kick out of analyst pulling facts out of thin air projections and extrapolations especially after the last one. The latest comes from Wedbush Securities analyst Scott Sutherland who cut RIM’s stock price target today due to “diminished expectations” for the PlayBook. Based on “Checks” Sutherland performed he found that the PlayBook “may sell only 450,000 units in the quarter ending this month (Q1)” according to Barrons. He has also downgraded his estimate of 3 million PlayBooks being sold in the fiscal year ending February 2012 down to 2.3 million.

Barrons explains Sutherlands claim of why the PlayBook is not doing well due to:

  • The small screen and “lack of appeal will limit consumer adoption”
  • Lack of support for the “Bridge” feature from Verizon and AT&T

I am really curious if RIM will step up to the plate before June 16th to squash these rumors or confirm them. From what I can tell BlackBerry users are loving the PlayBook and once it has native email I can see other smartphone users starting to change their tune. My bet is that Scott Sutherland “may” be wrong. 🙂 What do you think?

Anybody glad the analysts stopped bringing up the number of apps?

22 total comments on this postSubmit your comment!
  1. Another analyst BS again. They just done have a [email protected]$% clue, but feel compelled to shit on RIM b/c all the other analyst are doing the same. Bunch of [email protected]#$ sheep.

  2. Assuming this is a reasonably accurate estimate, why is 450,000 in something like 45 days a bad thing? Is the measure of success the sales numbers of the iPad? Personally, I’m thinking 10,000 sales a day is pretty good.

  3. Funny I was just reading everyone over at crackberry crying over lack of headline apps for the PB after being out a month and now this. Crapping on RIM seems to be a national pass time. I too thought 450000 woild have been good. I just hope RIM beats estimates or it’ll be another round of hand ringing.

  4. If by the end of the month then mean the end of May then I bet it is lower (more like 320,000), and if they mean by the end of June then I bet it is higher (more like 500,000).

    Still even if this number is accurate (and who knows) I don’t see it as being that bad or unexpected. With 3G/4G versions being released, and availability outside of North America expanding there is plenty of reason to expect sales to remain strong.

  5. I’m on verizon and have zero problems using the bridge with my PB.

  6. So the last I heard it was 250000 and now 450000 is a disappointment. Is it now we juzt seg expectations that RIM cannot reach and declare ita disappointment when they don’t reach them?

  7. 450,000 in just over a month of availability would be amazing. We all know it won’t top iPad numbers, but it is selling more than Android tablets are individually which is awesome.

    The future is definitely bright seeing as the tablet market is only expected to grow.

  8. It seems that most analysts are on a mission to destroy RIM and the blackberry brand. Blackberry is an excellent product. Way better than iPad. The only reason it’s being very hard to topple the iPad immediately is because it had a head start and because those apple brainwashed analysts are not giving the playbook a chance. If nobody wants give the PB a fair review than I will.

    PB: HD high quality screen.
    iJunk: Makes cathode ray tube look like the latest in high tech..

    PB: 2 high quality front facing stereo speakers.
    iJunk: 1 mono rear facing. Hello!!!! humans have 2 ears!!!

    PB: multitask.
    iJunk: do one thing at a time or i’ll be confused DUH.

    PB: 2 high quality cameras with 1 HD.
    iJunk: don’t bother to say cheese it would not make a difference.

    PB: HD video @ 60 frames/sec.
    iJunk: believes 60 frames/sec is too fast and speed kills.

    PB: watch your HD movies on your big screen using HDMI.
    iJunk: you need to buy and adapter????

    PB: tether it to your phone using bluetooth for 3G data connection.
    iJunk: pay over $100 more for 3G and buy a seperate plan.

    PB: flash web browsing.
    iJunk: Jobs says looking at flash websites for too long makes you become cockeyed and of course the brainwashed iFans believe it.

    PB: QNX runs anything from nuclear plants to cars to satellites to PB.
    iJunk: iOS runs ummmm iJunk.

    PB: Problems with 900 PB? We’ll deal with it before it gets to consumers.
    iJunk: Dead pixels? Maybe the consumers are all farsighted and they will not notice.

    PB: very intuitive and innovative interface.
    iJunk: click app, click home button, click app, click button, click…… iJunk fans say it’s magic.

    PB: 7″ screen. Take me anywhere with you and I’ll make you look as elegant and sexy as I am.
    iJunk: 10″ screen. I’m sick of being home all day. Please take me out for a coffee. Is pressing my Home Button all I’m good for?

    PB: starts at $499. Cheap for what you’re getting.
    iJunk: starts at $499. well… you’re getting junk and the proof is in the list above…

    • I’m really liking the stereo microphones with their auto-gain control. Very nice sound. Worked well when I recorded a video of my friends band. It was so loud in there, i was afraid there would be clipping, but it was great.

      Same for videos I recorded of some birds, it upped the gain and I could hear them well 🙂

  9. To be fair, I’m pretty sure both analysts were assuming the world would ‘end’ on the 21st, as it was supposed to. The lack of rapture has thrown a lot of things off and necessitated the second analyst’s new projections. I suspect if the apocalypse had occurred on schedule all us new age Mad Maxes would’ve snapped up PlayBooks en masse knowing that the RIM infrastructure would survive and be the only viable means of communication.

  10. I really believe that a lot of the negative reviews are in some way funded or linked with the competition there is so much hype going around with android and I think 99% don’t even understand what open source is! Ultimately I think the true professional will choose blackberry.

  11. Watch Scott the analyst confirm how wonderful he thinks Apple and Jobs are in this puffery video. Of course he’s
    totally independent.

  12. I can’t bear to look, but good find. This kind of confirms my earlier point (for me). If playbook sales are exceeding your expectation announce an even higher number and then say even this number is below your expectations. Media will report disappointment and general public might think the product is a failure and not buy.

    Still that is the reality RIM has to deal with and this tells me RIM has to do more to get the quality apps like kindle, Skype, and Net flix (silver light), hulu etc. Spend some of the 2billion in cash on these, I would say they are excellent investments for future sales and not wasted money.

    They did this a bit with the facebook app and the Angry birds announcement, imagine what the stock would be at if Mike L also said: Kindle coming! Netflix coming! and Skype coming too! I have a playbook and I love it but these apps have to be there and RIM cannot accept no for an answer. Also unlike others I don’t need to see them today I just need to know they will be there and then I believe the PB will be a huge success, but RIM must ensure they are coming.

    • 100% agree Kiddo. Its all about expectations. The public doesn’t know that you don’t have to hit Ipad numbers to be successful. The analyst could come out and say Playbook sales will ONLY hit 700 000 and its a failure. People will believe it because they will compare to Ipad numbers.

      RIM just needs to forge ahead and continue to focus on high end products with high end quality that are more future proof. Eventually if there is a strong enough track record of excelling and leading the pack, the public will catch on.

      Thats what the key to Apple success is. They were perceived to be leading the pack and in many ways they were. Its all about perception. Perception is key.

  13. PB sells well based on the hands-on experience and word of mouth. However, the analysts and media have fun playing “pile on” and celebrating Apple’s successes. Kicking RIM is a national pastime based more on a pack mentality than on independent thought and analysis.

    RIM has a hard road in front of them but they can come back. Their strengths are their security, push technology and the QNX operating system. PB will never reach the heights of the iPad but they will certainly be a solid number 2 in the market.

  14. I think one of ther secrets to RIMM future success is to bring the major apps (Kindle, etc) to PlayBook and keep their customers informed.

  15. I don’t understand why analysts ignore the fact that the US is not the world. Why would you assume that the sales will remain at the same level even after the PlayBook will be released in the rest of the world???
    US + Canada have about 340 million people in total and RIM’s market share there is about 15%. Meanwhile, Europe alone has 700 million people and RIM’s market share here is about 30%… Also, Asia has about 3.8 billion people, so I’m pretty sure the PB sales there will be a bit higher than in NA.
    You’d have to be insane to think that the sales will remain the same.

  16. This may sound childish and probably is but I am really happy that Apple is being hit by a serious malware attack right now. It finally shows people are sick of all the apple hype and that Apple has serious problems with security.

    I recall some people saying apple was than windows because they were attacked less. Of course it was just because attacking macs was a waste of time when they had so little of the market.

    Now Apple deal with the reality of your success built on the fact that you ignore security!

  17. With androids apps, native email, calendar and more cool stuff coming to the PB in the near future I think that RIM could easily kick in the ass to the analysts who only want to destroy the whole brand.

  18. It boggles my mind how analysts are predicting this crap without even factoring the global market launches that are happening.

    I have said it before and I will say it again, Playbook will be HUGE in Asia. The asian culture, by the fact of life that is small spaces to live and socialize, will flock to a 7″ tablet.

    Watch for it!

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