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RBC Analyst Estimates First Month BlackBerry PlayBook Sales at 250,000

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I am always curious how analysts make these estimates but the latest one is coming from RBC analyst Mike Abramsky. He estimates that RIM sold 250,000 PlayBooks in the first 30 days since launch. He also claims that they might sell 500,000 in the first quarter after launch. These “estimates” are based on “Checks at 180 Best Buys show 14 percent of the 16GB model sold out, 71 percent of the 32GB model sold out, and 84 percent of the 64GB model sold out; however, 32GB/64GB stock-outs appear allocation-related.”

I am not a mathematician or anything but that does not seem very scientific but I guess that is why it is an estimate. I am not sure what sort of extrapolations Abramsky is using but it seems to be missing big players like Staples, Radio Shack, and the many other retail locations. On top of that checking at Best Buy stores totally disregards the business market which does not head on over to Best Buy store to pick up multiple devices.

What do you think? Even at 250,000 that is a pretty nice following for the PlayBook and RIM only has more features to come. via AllThingsD

4 total comments on this postSubmit your comment!
  1. this is not scientific either but i have read from multiple bloggers that its really north of 400 000. the sales are doing very very well. As you said Ronen this guy only looked at best buy USA. He didnt factor in any other retailers and didnt factor in canada.

    I am particilarly excited to see sales in asia. they are just launching there now. The chinese and japanese love small compact devices. Playbook is gonna explode there.

    There has been nothing but positive word of mouth going around and once they are able to advertise native email and android capabilities, this thing is gonna blow up!

  2. Who knows if he’s right, or wrong on the low side, it seems like good news.

    It’s pretty clear from his report that he’s talking about retail sales and those that read it will understand that. So when he says 500,000 he’s talking retail. It will be very very interesting to see corporate uptake of this device. So far in my travels I have not seen many playbooks, which makes me think companies might be waiting still.

    I’m not doubting that those sales will come I’m just saying businesses are conservative. It’s simple decision for each one of us to say ya it’s worth $500 to me to get it, but for a company to order say 1000 they better know what they are going to use them for.

    What I could really see is making the 4G version work with a bluetooth headset and say you can buy another phone if you want but that’s your blackberry.

  3. My personal estimate is that RIM has sold 272,500 PlayBooks in the first month

  4. I’m glad to hear RIMM is prospering despite the initial bad reviews the PlayBook received.

    I believe that didn’t heavily advertise before PlayBooks release because there were main features left out and they wanted to create a build a slow burn momentum once customers actually tried it out. RIMM now needs to remain focused on building and promoting its next generation smart phones.

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