I always love this kind of speculation since it tends to always come out wrong. Forbes is using their new Trefis financial platform to see how RIM’s market share growth compares to Apple. They claim that mobile phones account for 52% of Apples stock and 50% of RIM’s stock price. I am kind of curious as to what the other 50% of RIM’s stock price is constituted of but lets take it at face value that Forbes did their homework.
The Trefis engine claims that because Apple’s market share went from 0.3% in 2007 to 2% in 2009 Apples is gaining fast. While RIM only grew from 1% mobile market share to about 3% in the same time. Forbes claims that this growth chart will leave Apple with 11% and RIM with 8% market share by 2016.
The math just doesn’t seem to jive so well with me since it seems to just be extrapolating the numbers. Still I am curious to see what you think? In my opinion I think Apple could really kill the mobile phone market by releasing a feature phone and call it the iPhone Mini… Otherwise RIM needs to make a big play in the consumer market to compete with Apple’s dumb-ing down of smartphones for the masses.