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Forbes Thinks iPhone May Overtake BlackBerry Market Share in 2011

Lecture-hall I always love this kind of speculation since it tends to always come out wrong. Forbes is using their new Trefis financial platform to see how RIM’s market share growth compares to Apple. They claim that mobile phones account for 52% of Apples stock and 50% of RIM’s stock price. I am kind of curious as to what the other 50% of RIM’s stock price is constituted of but lets take it at face value that Forbes did their homework.

The Trefis engine claims that because Apple’s market share went from 0.3% in 2007 to 2% in 2009 Apples is gaining fast. While RIM only grew from 1% mobile market share to about 3% in the same time. Forbes claims that this growth chart will leave Apple with 11% and RIM with 8% market share by 2016.

The math just doesn’t seem to jive so well with me since it seems to just be extrapolating the numbers. Still I am curious to see what you think? In my opinion I think Apple could really kill the mobile phone market by releasing a feature phone and call it the iPhone Mini… Otherwise RIM needs to make a big play in the consumer market to compete with Apple’s dumb-ing down of smartphones for the masses.

9 total comments on this postSubmit your comment!
  1. As a long time loyal Blackberry user, this doesn’t surprise me. I will probably switch when I qualify for an upgrade, simply because companies who’s services I use are developing all of their best apps for the iPhone and they aren’t putting any effort into the BB.

    • To be honest, I HATE the iPhone range, mostly due to the lack of a keyboard and poor usage times…

      HOWEVER, I also will likely consider an iPhone product when the next version comes out (albiet reluctantly), largely for the same reason – just about EVERY company I can name (literally) either HAS an iPhone application, or plans to create one in the NEAR FUTURE!

      With regards to BlackBerry OS on the other hand, I can think of only two dozen or so companies that create applications for BlackBerry OS and MOST of those have USA-specific information/data/services/content!

  2. Analysts are stupid…it they were smart they be CEOs/executives of companies like RIM or Apple. Look at the prediction on the success of PALM and it webOS phones. These people are ridiculous…the market will tell you what phone platform will remain dominant…as RIM is. If anyone thinks that apple will have the same success as iPod they are sadly mistaken. Apple still needs the wireless carriers. RIM had managed their relationship with the carriers better than any handset manufacturer…

    People should remember the battle of vhs vs beta…it’s not about technology only. The market will decide who wins

  3. Duhhhh… I think the market is dictating. Rim needs to take a look in its rear view mirror. That’s Apple on it’s bumper. And they’re gaining fast. Look. Its like this… The iPhone is such a better mobile phone. Hands down! And I’m a current BlackBerry owner. More companies are making apps for the iPhone than any other phone. Consumers will want that convenience. BlackBerry can’t just survive off the fact that they are called “BlackBerry’s” anymore. They need to put up or shut up! Go hard or go home! Putting the two phones side by side and you will quickly realize that there is no comparison. The only thing that cripples the iPhone is the fact that it has an exclusive agreement with AT&T’s limited crappy network. If Apple and Verizon ever came to some type of agreement to bring the iPhone over to big red… it would be curtains for Rim. And thats from a current BlackBerry owner.

    • I couldn’t agree more, SQ609. “Dumbing down”??? Get serious. Just put the two phones side by side. RIM software looks old and tired

    • I have to say that being someone that has used both phones extensively, a 9700 and iphone 3gs are pretty similar in features and usability, plus I can type faster on a 9700. That said the app store is the major advantage at this point for apple. It is the key factor that T think is resulting in increased market share. App World sucks.

  4. You can look at the analysis with a skeptical view, but in reality this is good.

    It’s during times when manufacturers start to get a little heat either literally or on the stock price they may be more inclined to “react.”

    I love my Berry, but let’s face it RIM has some real issues they need to address if they want to compete long term. The basic phone/texter generation is being replaced by younger, smarter more demanding professionals. They want to combine their personal and work phone into one solid and entertaining OS.

    RIM needs the heat. I hope they deliver for us in the areas that matter.

    • Yeah they definitely do need to wake up and smell the coffee. They really could be leading in many respects but they need to break out of their shell and be a little edgy. Stop bending over backwards for carriers and revamp the experience. There is no reason they could not do somehing drastic like support activesync on the BIS backend servers for full 2 way sync of PIM and email even with Gmail which supports ActiveSync

  5. BlackBerry App World has been available for up to a year (depending on which country you are referring to) and a LONG list of countries either don’t have official access, or don’t have access to premium (paid) applications – Apple not only launched the iTunes Application Store GLOBALLY within A FEW DAYS (weeks, in a worse-case scenario), but premium (paid) applications were available in most countries from DAY ONE!

    Then there’s the browser thing – whilst I have no problem with the current browser, most BlackBerry users complain about it (some quite loudly!)… A whole year after Research in Motion (RIM) acquired Torch Mobile and the closest we’ve come to an improved browser is a teaser-video, with rumors this won’t even be made available until at least the end of the year!

    BlackBerry OS 5.x was distributed to service providers “late last year”, however this update not only adds very few features, but many “key” service providers haven’t made the update to some or all of their customers – major iPhone OS upgrades include a LOT of new features and they’re made available to ALL users within days (weeks, in a worse-case scenario)!

    And what about the first-party Facebook, MySpace and Twitter clients? The Facebook and MySpace clients haven’t seen any significant improvements in quite a long time, and RIM still haven’t managed to get THEIR Twitter client out the door – anywhere up to SIX MONTHS behind the competition (namely iPhone OS and Android OS)!

    The Point to all of this?

    RIM need to “pull their thumb out” and actually get the wheels TURNING if they don’t want to get left behind!

    Yes RIM make some FANTASTIC devices, but all the issues above, these are things that will make most consumers jump ship!

    * Sort out your application store, make both the store AND premium (paid) applications available to ALL countries IMMEDIATELY!
    * Release a SIGNIFICANT browser upgrade IMMEDIATELY!
    * Streamline your updates so they’re made available GLOBALLY and IMMEDIATELY!
    * Either re-write BlackBerry OS “from the ground-up” or add some SIGNIFICANT, new functionality to it IMMEDIATELY!
    * Update your first-party, social networking clients with some SIGNIFICANT, new functionality IMMEDIATELY and for crying out loud, get your first-party Twitter client out the door!

    If RIM can’t do these things IMMEDIATELY, then I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if the iPhone ranges becomes more popular in 2011, if not sooner (already just about every one I know has an iPhone, and I know just THREE other people with a BlackBerry!)…

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